Courtesy of iii.org
On Thursday April 5th Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell, scientists with the Colorado State University, issued their 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast. The forecast anticipates slightly above-average activity for the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season.
There is slightly above-average probability of a major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
Klotzbach and Bell estimate that 2018 will have 7 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 14 named storms (median is 12.0), 70 named storm days (median is 60.1), 30 hurricane days (median is 21.3), 3 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane (median is 2.0) and 7 major hurricane days (median is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 120 percent of the long-period average.
Probabilities for at least one major hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas:
- Entire continental U.S. coastline – 63% (average for last century is 52%)
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 39% (average for last century is 31%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 38% (average for last century is 30%)
As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
Click here for the full forecast.
Dr. Philip Klotzbach is a non-resident scholar for the Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.)